Conspiracy Of Power Between The South West And North West By Ahmed Abdullahi

The political games, gimmicks and shenanigans between the South West and the North West began in our very first Republic and has gone on since then.

Akintola not Awolowo, Obasanjo not Abiola, it could have been easily Osinbajo and not Asiwaju similarly. History, albeit often upheaving has little to no regard for the feelings and sensibilities of all and sundry.

There’s perhaps a reason why since the return of democracy to the country in 1999, two regions have governed the longest. One could even make the argument that if not for the Niger Delta agitations, ex-president Jonathan himself wouldn’t have been made Vice President, thus rendering his eventual presidential ascent a non starter in the first place.

Largely homogenous in large part due to civilizations of historical significance in the Sokoto Caliphate and the Old Oyo empire, and boasting the biggest voting blocs in the country, it was perhaps inevitable that the North West and South West would come to play the most pivotal role in charting a course for the country throughout much of its troubled history.

The problem however, as often the case is with two powerhouses competing for the same goal, is that one has to thrive at the expense of the other. The victory of one most certainly must spell the defeat of the other.

In the complex entity that is Nigeria, political power isn’t served a la carte. And though these two dominant power blocs have mastered the art of navigating the maze that is Nigerian politics, only one can govern at a time.

It must therefore be that, if the North Western political establishment is in power, the South Western political establishment is miles away from it.

It must have been to circumvent this uncomfortable reality that the then Northern political establishment headed by the late Sardauna of Sokoto struck the first blow when it largely aligned itself with the 13th Aare Ona Kakanfo against the mighty Awo whom they deemed ideologically erring and too rigid to be reasoned with. The wisdom must have been that Akintola could pander to Northern interests much better in comparison to the staunchly conservative Awo.

History repeated itself in 1999 when in trying to make amends for the 1993 disaster, the Northern political establishment, again refused to back a true Yoruba conservative, from the Awo progressive bloc, fearing that Northern interests could be compromised with the ascent to power of one, hence pitching their tent with former military head of state, General Olusegun Obasanjo at the polls. Their lack of foresight gave birth to Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu today and paved the way for the gradual systemic weakening of the North Western base, the true foundation and pillar of the Northern political establishment.

Any keen follower of Nigerian politics since May 29 2023 will agree that the North West establishment is no longer as influential as they used to be. The routine visits to Aso Rock have come to an abrupt halt and access to the center has thus been recalibrated to favor the North East, liberal in comparison to the traditional conservative North West, and deemed reasonable enough to be parlayed with. Mallam Nuhu Ribadu and Senator Kashim Shettima are suddenly frontrunners for the top job in 2031.

Engr. Rabi’u Musa Kwankwaso and Mallam Nasir El Rufa’i, the two Arewa politicians who have pandered to the Northern conservative establishment and base the most, mostly for the survival of their political careers up North, are nowhere to be found as expected in the centre when the Northern political establishment is not in power. Victims of chance in a never ending cycle of political rivalry. Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu and the South West political establishment know the game and have been at its mercy for so long now that they cannot afford to have representatives of their erstwhile rivals in government handing out favors to political middle men and jobbers in preparation for a presidential run eight years from now. Oh Nigerian politics, it is indeed not for the faintest of hearts.

As for me, an Adamawa man from the North East, I am content sitting at home, watching how events unfold over the course of the next few years or so. The race for 2031 is on and if the North still can’t find the next Buhari by then and begin to help him build alliances, the South West establishment will do the needful and the North will have its own Samuel Ladoke Akintola or Olusegun Obasanjo in no time.

Ahmed Abdullahi writes from Abuja and can be reached via: 07013365133