The Foundation for Peace Professionals (PeacePro) has called for greater clarity, consistency and harmonisation of Nigeria’s household and social-protection data, following the Federal Government’s reported figures on the size of the National Social Register and the reach of its cash-transfer programme.
The Executive Director of PeacePro, Abdulrazaq Hamzat, said the organisation’s concern was not an allegation of wrongdoing, but a call for government to provide Nigerians with a clear statistical bridge connecting the different household, population, beneficiary and expenditure figures being used across public institutions.
“We are not questioning the importance of social protection or the efforts of government to support vulnerable Nigerians. We are asking a simple public-interest question: what exactly is being counted, under what definition, and how do the different numbers relate to one another?” Hamzat said.
19.7 million households and 70 million Nigerians
According to statements attributed to the Federal Government in September 2025, approximately 19.7 million poor and vulnerable households had been captured in the National Social Register, representing more than 70 million individuals.
A subsequent World Bank publication describes Nigeria’s wider Social Registry as covering more than 19 million households and approximately 86 million individuals, comprising the National Social Registry and Rapid Response Registry. The World Bank also describes the National Social Registry as an aggregation of State Social Registries.
PeacePro says the differences in these figures may reflect differences in dates, registry components or definitions, but that is precisely why the underlying methodology and reporting date should be made explicit.
Hamzat said the reported 19.7 million households and 70 million individuals imply an average of approximately 3.55 persons per household.
That figure differs from the 5.06 persons per household national average reported by the National Bureau of Statistics in its Nigeria Living Standards Survey 2020. The NBS reported an average household size of 5.42 persons in rural areas and 4.50 in urban areas.
“If the 5.06 national average were mechanically applied to 19.7 million households, it would produce a population of approximately 99.7 million people,” Hamzat said.
“However, we are not suggesting that this calculation proves that either figure is incorrect. The Social Register is a targeted administrative database, not a population census. Household composition among registered poor and vulnerable households may differ from the national average.
“Our legitimate question is therefore, what household definition and household size methodology produced the reported relationship between 19.7 million households and more than 70 million individuals?”
The agricultural household question
PeacePro said another official dataset makes the need for reconciliation even more important.
The National Bureau of Statistics’ National Agricultural Sample Census (NASC) 2022 reported an estimated 40.2 million agricultural households in Nigeria. The Federal Ministry of Information, reporting the NBS census results, also stated that the country had about 40.2 million agricultural households.
The NBS describes the NASC as an agricultural census designed to provide comprehensive information on agricultural activities, including crop production, livestock, fisheries and forestry.
PeacePro stresses that an agricultural household should not automatically be interpreted as a household whose only activity is agriculture, and the figure should not be added to non-agricultural households as though the categories were necessarily mutually exclusive.
Nevertheless, Hamzat said the figure raises an important national statistical question.
“According to the 2006 Population and Housing Census data published by the National Bureau of Statistics, Nigeria had 28,900,492 households at the time, including regular, institutional, homeless, nomadic, transient and fishing/hunting household categories. Regular households alone numbered 28,197,085.
“Sixteen years later, the NBS agricultural census reported approximately 40.2 million agricultural households alone.
“Obviously, these exercises have different purposes, methodologies and reference periods. We are not saying the two figures should be identical.
“But Nigerians deserve to understand the statistical relationship between them.
How did the national household universe evolve from the 2006 census to the 2022 agricultural census? What is the current estimated total number of households in Nigeria? How many of those households are agricultural, and how many are not classified as agricultural?
“These are reasonable questions for a national statistical system.”
PeacePro said the issue becomes even more important when the various social intervention figures are placed side by side.
The Federal Government has reported a programme target of 15 million households, with each household intended to receive ₦75,000 over three months, through three monthly payments of ₦25,000. The World Bank documented the government’s 15-million-household programme and its ₦75,000 three-month structure.
In September 2025, government reporting stated that approximately 8.1 million households had received at least one tranche of ₦25,000, while another account of the same briefing reported 8.5 million households.
Government also stated that some households had received two or three payments.
PeacePro believes this difference should be clarified rather than interpreted prematurely.
“Was the difference caused by the timing of reporting, an additional payment cycle, a distinction between successful and processed payments, or another administrative definition?” Hamzat asked.
“We are not alleging an error. We are asking for the reconciliation.”
Government has also reported approximately ₦330 billion in cash transfer disbursements.
PeacePro said the figure should be reconciled against the number and distribution of payments.
At ₦25,000 per tranche,
8.1 million households × ₦25,000 = ₦202.5 billion.
If 8.1 million households had each received three tranches, 8.1 million × ₦75,000 = ₦607.5 billion.
“These calculations do not establish an inconsistency because government has clearly indicated that households received different numbers of tranches,” Hamzat said.
“That is exactly why we need the underlying distribution. How many households received one payment? How many received two? How many received three? And how does that distribution reconcile precisely to the reported ₦330 billion?”
PeacePro said this would turn an understandable public question into a straightforward accounting exercise.
PeacePro also believes the source and use of programme funding should be presented clearly.
The World Bank announced in December 2021 that it had approved an $800 million International Development Association (IDA) credit for the National Social Safety Net Program Scale-Up (NASSP-SU). The World Bank said the financing was intended both to expand shock responsive safety net support and strengthen Nigeria’s national safety net delivery system.
World Bank project documentation shows that the $800 million project allocation included approximately $747 million for cash transfers, alongside allocations for other components, including expansion of the registry, NASSCO operations and NCTO operations.
PeacePro therefore stresses that the $800 million should not simply be described as $800 million in cash handed to beneficiaries.
“The World Bank documentation itself shows that the facility has several components,” Hamzat said.
“What Nigerians need is a transparent reconciliation showing the amount committed, amount disbursed, amount used for cash transfers, amount used for delivery systems and other components, and the amount remaining under the facility.”
PeacePro proposes that every major social intervention programme should be traceable through a clearly defined chain.
Hamzat said this would help distinguish between households, individuals, beneficiaries and transactions.
“Three payments to one household do not constitute three households,” he said.
“Likewise, one person appearing in two programmes does not automatically represent two individuals. Several members of the same household receiving different interventions do not automatically constitute several households.”
PeacePro is therefore calling on the relevant institutions, including the National Bureau of Statistics, National Population Commission, National Social Safety Nets Coordinating Office, National Cash Transfer Office and National Identity Management Commission to work together on a harmonised household data framework.
The organisation is asking government to publish a consolidated statement showing, for a clearly stated reference date, Nigeria’s total estimated number of households; the definition used for “household” in each major statistical and social protection system;
the number of agricultural households;
the number of households in the National Social Register;
the number of individuals represented in the register; the methodology used to derive the individual count; the number of households assessed as poor or vulnerable; the number eligible for each intervention;the number approved;the number of unique households actually paid;the number of unique individuals reached;the number of payment transactions;
the number receiving one, two and three tranches;the amount allocated;the amount disbursed;the source of each tranche of funding; and the number of records added, removed, merged, duplicated or updated during the reporting period.
PeacePro is also calling for an independent technical review of the data architecture, not as an investigation into wrongdoing, but as a standard measure for strengthening the integrity of a large public database.
The review, Hamzat said, should examine duplicate records, outdated records, changes in household composition, relocation, identity matching and payment reconciliation, while respecting applicable privacy and data protection requirements.
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